NEWS TRADING Tuesday march 30, 2010

NEWS TRADING

Tuesday March 30, 2010

[4:30am NY Time]

UK Final GDP q/q BUY 0.6% SELL 0.0% GBP/USD

We'll be focusing on the Final GDP q/q from UK, which is also known
as the 3rd release for the quarterly GDP of Q4 2009; GDP is defined
as "the market value of all final goods and services produced within
a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum
of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and
services produced within a country in a given period of time." GDP
is the basically the indicator of the economy, and a stronger GDP
means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as
better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure...

Since this is the third release of the 4th quarter GDP, we're not
likely to get any surprise as most 3rd releases are pretty much
inline. However, looking at current market condition and the
possible risk appetite sentiment surrounding this week's releases,
we could see some volatility or even a trading opportunity should
this release surprise the market even by 0.1%... therefore we'll wait
for the release and look for a possible retracement trade.

Our surprise factor is 0.3% as we'll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD
at 0.0% or worse, and BUY GBP/USD at 0.6% or better. Historically,
there is a 80% of chance if our S. Factor is hit, the market will
move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact
report, even if it's the 3rd or Final GDP release.

[8:30pm NY Time]

AU Retail Sales BUY 0.9% SELL -0.3% AUD/USD

We'll be looking for a possible trade on the Australian Retail Sales
m/m release and we are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.6% from
the forecast release of 0.3%. If we get a 0.9% (or better) or -0.3%
(or worse), we'd get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on
the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over
50 pips in the next 2 hours.

With RBA Governor's recent bullish comments over future monetary
policy, AUD is likely to remain in high demand for the time being
and a positive release should help AUD/USD test recent highs, if not
making a break above the range that it has been trading for the past
6 months.

DEFINITION

"Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has
a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make
up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of
the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose
attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first
significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior
and is susceptible to surprises."

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NEWS TRADING

Thursday March 25, 2010

[5:30am NY Time]

UK Retail Sales BUY 1.4% SELL 0.2% GBP/USD

We'll be trading Retail Sales release today from UK, it's a direct
measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher
release is generally good for the economy, and better for it's
currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy
and not good for it's currency. Retail Sales makes up a decent part
of the GDP and the effect of this release could be very profound to
the immediate trend given the current risk averse condition of the
market.

Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is
0.6% on the Headline number. If our deviation is hit, we can expect
the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a
historical accuracy of 72%. With recent bullish news in the US and
the general bearish trend in all European currencies, GBP has broken
current immediate support areas and the next significant support is
below the 1.4800... should we get a better release, we could see some
profit taking by Sterling short sellers and speculators entering
long trades on the back of the exaggerated bearish movements in the
past 2 weeks... it's possible to see the market move above the 1.5150
level if we were to get a strong Retail Sales release, and test
1.4780 level if the Retail Sales falls significantly short of
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FOREX NEWS SIGNAL

NEWS TRADING

Thursday October 15, 2009

[8:30am NY Time]

US Core CPI Sales BUY 0.3% SELL -0.1% USD/JPY

We are going to look for a surprise factor of 0.2%; if the CPI
number (core) increases to a release at 0.3% then we will BUY of
USD/JPY. If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we'll SELL
USD/JPY. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is
likely to to exaggerate, therefore if either of our tradable
releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50
pips.

Since US CPI is considered as global news event, an unexpected
higher release will probably be considered as risk appetite whereas
an unexpected lower release will probably be considered as risk
aversion. Although I will use the USD/JPY pair a the gauge for risk
sentiment, I might look to EUR/JPY to execute my trade. With recent
market risk appetite sentiment, the best course of action on a
slightly negative release is probably wait for the market to drop,
then take a reversal, that way you will be going with the trend at a
much better position.

DEFINITION:

"CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the
movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption
purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected
for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in
a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the
shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the
index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for
sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia)." It is also
known as the "True Cost of Living".

FOREX NEWS SIGNAL

NEWS TRADING

Wednesday October 14, 2009

[8:30am NY Time]

US Core Retail Sales BUY 1.0% SELL -0.3% USD/JPY

We have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto)
coming out at 8:30am, It is important to make sure there is no
conflict with the numbers between the them in order for us to get
into a trade. Usually the Core release is more accurate reflection
of the activities at the retail level because it excludes the
volatile Automotive components, which could be influenced by the
recent governmental incentives, or just seasonal factors; therefore
the headline Retail Sales should be different from the Core reading,
and hopefully in the same direction. As the Headline number is
expected at -2.0% (E), with a previous release of 2.7%. Our focus
will be not so much to vast difference of the estimated releases of
these numbers, but the deviation from their respective estimate to
the actual release figures.

As we could probably expect the market to react based on risk
sentiment, therefore I may have to focus on other pairs such as the
EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY for best results, using USD/JPY as a gauge.
(USD/JPY up for risk appetite and USD/JPU down for risk aversion)

DEFINITION:

"(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the
Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of
Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and
can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this
volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the
underlying trend in consumer spending."

[5:45pm NY Time]

NZ CPI q/q BUY 1.1% SELL 0.5% NZD/USD

Our focus will be on the headline CPI number. If we get a better
than expected number of 0.8% by 0.3%, we should be looking to BUY
NZD/USD; if we get a lower than 0.5%, then we'll see NZD/USD move
down.

With recent RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) unexpected rate hike,
RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) is widely expected to hike
interest rates next, as both economies are closely correlated. As
this release will undoubtedly push that speculation to a new level
since it would give RBNZ Governor Bollard justification to hike
rates. However, if the 3rd quarter CPI turned out to be less than
expectation, we could see a possible switch of sentiment on RBNZ
hiking rates in the next few meetings, thus add more downward
pressure to the NZD than this release would normally do. In other
words, expect a more exggerated response from the market... and to top
it off, this release is scheduled at the unholy hours of U.S.
evening prior to NIKKEI open, therefore expect to see low liquidity
along with this release.

DEFINITION:

"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation
(i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when
purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect
on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank
is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an
annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising
interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract
foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's
currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and will
usually have a high impact upon release."

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FOREX NEWs SIGNAL OCTOBER 2009

NEWS TRADING

Thursday October 8, 2009

[7:00am NY Time]

UK BOE Rate Decision N/A

BOE's MPC is scheduled to release interest rate decision today, and
it's expected that Bank of England will keep the current rate at
0.50% (again). If you remember last rate decision, BOE kept both
interest rate and APF unchanged, which turned out to be a bullish
signal for the sterling.

One interesting observation is the MPC meeting minutes of the last
rate decision meeting, which came out at an unanimous vote count of
keeping both rate and APF unchanged. Seems like the dissenters have
decided on a wait and see policy. This is of course, a rather
bullish signal for the Sterling.

Today's rate decision will once again hinged upon the APF program.
If BOE were to increase it once again, it would surprise the market
and we could see immediate Sterling weakness. However, on an
unchanged verdict, market may not necessarily take that as a
positive sign. Therefore, regardless of the rate decision, we could
see some weakness in the Sterling prior to the release.

As usual, I'll be trading this news live and post the results back
here. If everything is as expected, we could see very little market
reaction, and therefore it could be a no trade.

[7:45am NY Time]

ECB Rate Decision N/A

ECB (European Central Bank) will most likely leave rates at an
unchanged level of 1.00% once again. It is almost impossible for
ECB to surprise the market at this point and cut or hike current
rate by 0.25%. Numerous of ECB officials, including chairman
Trichet, stated recently that the current rate is appropriate, the
expectation for ECB rates among analysts is pretty much neutral.

Furthermore ECB is still concerned over the imbalanced economic
recovery over its member countries, therefore there would be no
justification for a rate hike, even though RBA surprised the market
by hiking rates, ECB is not likely to follow suit.

And of course, based on past track records, ECB is not in the habit
of surprising the market, therefore not much market reactions
usually follow this release.

The important event will be the press conference at 8:30am, or 45
minutes after this release. ECB Chairman Trichet will deliver a
written statement and then host a lengthy Q&A session. Market is
more likely to be extreme volatile during the press conference than
the actual rate decision, as Trichet sometimes may drop hints on
future ECB monetary policy direction; therefore, I'd pretty much
skip this news and just pay attention to the press conference itself
as usual.

[8:30am NY Time]

Trichet Press Conference

Trichet will once again deliver a statement along with a Long and
boring Q&A session afterwards. This press conference is usually
very volatile and the market is always listening to Trichet's tone
for future ECB policies. If Trichet is hawkish, then we will see
EURO gain, if Trichet is dovish, then we will see EURO lose against
all other currencies.

Fair Warning: If you have never traded this release, it is better to
stay out of the market. Wait until around 9:30am~10:00am NY Equity
open, then follow the trend. If Trichet is hawkish or being
optimistic, then EUR/USD will gain throughout the session and may
even carry over to Friday. Therefore there are plenty of
opportunities to trade after the market has already established
itself.

This Press Conference is usually done in 2 parts, the first part is
a written statement which various newswire services will release
headlines immediately at 8:30am, then Trichet will read through the
statement; 2nd part of the press conference is a Question and Answer
session where Trichet will take questions live from onsite media
members. This part is highly unpredictable as Trichet may hint the
market and drive prices intentionally. As I once heard from someone
who knows Trichet personally, that there is never a slip-of-tongue
with Trichet, he does everything intentionally.

However, Trichet is pretty good in maintaining a neutral stance, but
sometimes market may read too much into his statements and move
excessively... so once again, if you have not traded this release
before, best to stay out.
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