forex news signa thurs 25th march 2010

NEWS TRADING

Thursday March 25, 2010

[5:30am NY Time]

UK Retail Sales BUY 1.4% SELL 0.2% GBP/USD

We'll be trading Retail Sales release today from UK, it's a direct
measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher
release is generally good for the economy, and better for it's
currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy
and not good for it's currency. Retail Sales makes up a decent part
of the GDP and the effect of this release could be very profound to
the immediate trend given the current risk averse condition of the
market.

Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is
0.6% on the Headline number. If our deviation is hit, we can expect
the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a
historical accuracy of 72%. With recent bullish news in the US and
the general bearish trend in all European currencies, GBP has broken
current immediate support areas and the next significant support is
below the 1.4800... should we get a better release, we could see some
profit taking by Sterling short sellers and speculators entering
long trades on the back of the exaggerated bearish movements in the
past 2 weeks... it's possible to see the market move above the 1.5150
level if we were to get a strong Retail Sales release, and test
1.4780 level if the Retail Sales falls significantly short of
expectation.