NEWS TRADING Tuesday march 30, 2010

NEWS TRADING

Tuesday March 30, 2010

[4:30am NY Time]

UK Final GDP q/q BUY 0.6% SELL 0.0% GBP/USD

We'll be focusing on the Final GDP q/q from UK, which is also known
as the 3rd release for the quarterly GDP of Q4 2009; GDP is defined
as "the market value of all final goods and services produced within
a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum
of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and
services produced within a country in a given period of time." GDP
is the basically the indicator of the economy, and a stronger GDP
means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as
better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure...

Since this is the third release of the 4th quarter GDP, we're not
likely to get any surprise as most 3rd releases are pretty much
inline. However, looking at current market condition and the
possible risk appetite sentiment surrounding this week's releases,
we could see some volatility or even a trading opportunity should
this release surprise the market even by 0.1%... therefore we'll wait
for the release and look for a possible retracement trade.

Our surprise factor is 0.3% as we'll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD
at 0.0% or worse, and BUY GBP/USD at 0.6% or better. Historically,
there is a 80% of chance if our S. Factor is hit, the market will
move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact
report, even if it's the 3rd or Final GDP release.

[8:30pm NY Time]

AU Retail Sales BUY 0.9% SELL -0.3% AUD/USD

We'll be looking for a possible trade on the Australian Retail Sales
m/m release and we are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.6% from
the forecast release of 0.3%. If we get a 0.9% (or better) or -0.3%
(or worse), we'd get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on
the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over
50 pips in the next 2 hours.

With RBA Governor's recent bullish comments over future monetary
policy, AUD is likely to remain in high demand for the time being
and a positive release should help AUD/USD test recent highs, if not
making a break above the range that it has been trading for the past
6 months.

DEFINITION

"Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has
a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make
up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of
the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose
attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first
significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior
and is susceptible to surprises."

Thanks,